A simulation model of urban growth driven by the bosphorus bridges

Abstract

Istanbul, which joins Asia and Europe, has always attracted attention thanks to its cultural, natural, and environmental heritages. However, an increase in population has caused an enormous transportation problem. To overcome this problem, two bridges were built on the Bosphorus strait, and a third bridge will be built on the north side of the Bosphorus. Shortly after the first two bridges were built, each bridge created its own traffic and triggered urbanization northward into Istanbul. The main purposes of this chapter are to determine land use changes driven by the Bosphorus bridges, as well as the probable impact of a third bridge on land usage. For these purposes, an urban growth simulation model was created for the year 2030, using a SLEUTH-based urban growth model. According to the results, Istanbul will continue growing northward. In the north of the city, 40% of forest areas and 83% of agriculture-urban open space will transform into settlement areas. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014.