Yazar "Kilic, Fatmagul" seçeneğine göre listele

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    CREATING URBAN GROWTH SIMULATION MODELS DRIVEN BY THE BOSPHORUS BRIDGES
    (PARLAR SCIENTIFIC PUBLICATIONS (P S P), 2017) Ayazli, Ismail Ercument; Kilic, Fatmagul; Lauf, Steffen; Kleinschmit, Birgit; Demir, Hulya
    In the past and today, Istanbul has always been one of the most important cities in the world because of its historical, cultural and natural features. This fact has caused increase in population and great transportation problem since 1950s. To surmount the transportation problem, two bridges were built and a third one is being constructed on the Bosphorus. Although zone plans, which made in the 1960s, suggested the urban growth to east-west direction, each bridge created its own traffic and triggered urbanization to northward. Main objectives of this paper are to determine the land use changes driven by Bosphorus bridges, predict potential impacts of the 3rd bridge and compare the effects of different routes on urbanization in Istanbul. Two motorways were selected among for alternative routes preparing for 3rd bridge. To find out the impacts of Bosphorus bridges on the urbanization, cellular automata (CA) based urban growth simulation models were created for the year 2030 and change detection analysis were implemented between 2009 and 2030. According to the results, Istanbul will continue grow northward and almost the half of forest area will be damaged and transformed to urban area in 2030.
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    Simulating urban growth driven by transportation networks: A case study of the Istanbul third bridge
    (ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2015) Ayazli, Ismail Ercument; Kilic, Fatmagul; Lauf, Steffen; Demir, Hulya; Kleinschmit, Birgit
    Increasing populations and the related transport volumes are problematic for metropolitan regions in Istanbul especially due to the separation of the city by the Bosphorus strait, which creates significant congestion, delays, and carbon dioxide emissions. A third bridge north of the two existing bridges that will bypass the urban areas in Istanbul is under construction to address these challenges. The new Yavuz Sultan Selim Bridge project will transect the most important natural areas. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate urban growth driven by transport networks as observed after the construction of the two existing bridges and the probable impact the third bridge will have on land use and land cover (LULC) via a cellular automata (CA) based simulation technique. The time periods selected for model calibration were 1972, 1987, 2002, and 2009 because the first bridge (Bosphorus Bridge) was built in 1973 and the second bridge (Fatih Sultan Mehmet Bridge) in 1988. An urban growth simulation model was generated for the year 2030, and a change detection analysis was performed between 1972-2009 and 2009-2030 to determine the probable natural areas threatened by urbanization. According to the results, Istanbul will continue to grow northward with 41% of forested areas and 28% of fragile ecosystem areas transforming into urban areas between 2009 and 2030. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.