Statistical and seismotectonic analyses of the Marmara region under existing stress regime in the west of the NAFZ

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dc.contributor.authorAlkan, Hamdi
dc.contributor.authorÖztürk, Serkan
dc.contributor.authorBektaş, Özcan
dc.contributor.authorBüyüksaraç, Aydın
dc.date.accessioned2025-05-04T16:42:07Z
dc.date.available2025-05-04T16:42:07Z
dc.date.issued2025
dc.departmentSivas Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractThe Marmara Region is an active tectonic region in northwestern Türkiye, which comprises some important strike-slip active fault mechanisms and important tectonic units, located near the western part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone. In the historical and instrumental period, the Marmara Region experienced large/devastating earthquakes. Considering this continuous activity, in this study, we investigate the tectonic structure and performed future seismic hazard estimation of the region based on some seismotectonic parameters. For this evaluation, we plot the Coulomb stress change maps of 1912 Mürefte-Şarköy, 1953 Yenice-Gönen and 1999 İzmit mainshocks with the earthquakes (MW ≥ 4.5) that occurred in the study region after 2003. For the estimation of b-value, occurrence probabilities and return periods of earthquakes, we used a homogenous local seismicity catalogue consisting of 119.029 events for the period between 1912 and 2023. In the findings of this study, the lower b-values and increasing Coulomb stress changes which are trigger stress failure compatible are observed in the west and northwest of the Marmara Sea. In contrast, the higher/moderate b-values and decreasing Coulomb stress values are observed in the east and southeast of the Marmara Sea. The results of probability assessments show that an earthquake with Mw = 6.5 may occur with a probability of 98% in the west of the Marmara Sea after 2025. As a remarkable fact, a comprehensive assessment of these types of variables will supply important findings for earthquake hazard and potential in the study region. © The Author(s) under exclusive licence to Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences 2024.
dc.description.sponsorshipBogazici University
dc.description.sponsorshipKandilli Observatory and Research Institute
dc.description.sponsorshipGeneric Mapping Tools, (2019)
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s11600-024-01449-6
dc.identifier.endpage1136
dc.identifier.issn1895-6572
dc.identifier.issue2
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-105001070403
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ2
dc.identifier.startpage1117
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-024-01449-6
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12418/35084
dc.identifier.volume73
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherSpringer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
dc.relation.ispartofActa Geophysica
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.snmzKA_Scopus_20250504
dc.subjectb-value
dc.subjectCoulomb stress
dc.subjectMarmara region
dc.subjectProbability
dc.subjectReturn period
dc.titleStatistical and seismotectonic analyses of the Marmara region under existing stress regime in the west of the NAFZ
dc.typeArticle

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