Estimation of the future fracture epidemiology in the patients applying to the emergency department with long short time memory method

Operation rooms, human resources and equipment planning are essential for increasing theeffectiveness of diagnostic and treatment methods in line with the needs of emergency cases.In this study, 151822 patients admitted to the emergency department (ED) within 3 yearswere examined in three categories including gender, fracture sites and causes of fracture.However, fracture cases were treated as time series and Long Short Time Memory (LSTM)method was used to estimate the number of future fracture cases. In the learning phase, thenumber of monthly cases in the next 6 months was estimated using 30-month case numbers.The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean relative Error(MRE) values of the error rate between the estimated and actual number of cases were given.