Spatiotemporal and seasonality analysis of sheep and goat pox (SGP) disease outbreaks in Turkey between 2010 and 2019

Abstract

Sheep and goat pox (SGP) is a highly infectious disease with a high case fatality rate. It causes serious economic losses and decreases productivity in infected facilities and contact areas. As in many countries of the world, SGP outbreaks reported from Turkey to the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) continue to threaten animal health. Therefore, studies that will guide the production of effective policies to prevent and control SGP are extremely important. This study aims at evaluating the spatiotemporal distribution of SGP outbreaks by geographical information system (GIS)–based analyses. In accordance with this purpose, spatiotemporal scan analyses were applied to reveal the spatiotemporal distribution pattern and transmission of SGP outbreaks reported in Turkey between 2010 and 2019. Space–time cluster analysis revealed 4 several clusters, indicating geographic areas at the highest risk. Spatiotemporal clusters were 6 to 11 times more likely to be exposed to SGP than the general distribution. The average spatiotemporal density of outbreaks in clusters was estimated as 0.20 ± 0.07 outbreaks per 1000 km2 per month. Seasonal analysis and time series analysis showed similar findings. The seasonality of SGP was mainly defined in the winter (from December to February) when the seasonal adjusted factor (SAF) was at a peak of 504.6. In addition, February had the highest SAF with 7.1. Directional distribution analysis showed that the transmission of SGP was oriented between northeast (NE)–southwest (SW) and northwest (NW)–southeast (SE) and that distribution was changed every 2 years. These findings present a basis for the effective monitoring and prevention of SGP and provide valuable information to policymakers.